Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will BK Häcken win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8cfdae964399f5eab41ebf41669e1d9201e82318d12a9e085307347aebf56a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 47c | 40,000$18,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,800 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,400 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 53c | 18,810$9,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,840.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 451.4$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 53c | 379$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.13 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 54c | 225.4$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 46c | 109.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 42c | 86.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 53c | 70.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 51c | 60.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Yes | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Yes | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 53c | 55.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed No | 58c | 43.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed No | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 42c | 34.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 54c | 18.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BK Häcken win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will BK Häcken vs. AEK Lárnakas end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.