NHL · resolved market
DEL: Loewen Frankfurt vs. Schwenninger Wild Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9a8a6a2485d58048c0715a818be545fa91068ec952a9b2a80446f2dc25fcba9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Schwenninger Wild Wingsof Loewen Frankfurt, Schwenninger Wild Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Loewen Frankfurt | 49c | 1,014$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.61 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Schwenninger Wild Wings | 51c | 784.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.61 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Schwenninger Wild Wings | 50c | 499.95$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.88 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Schwenninger Wild Wings | 49c | 499.62$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.81 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Schwenninger Wild Wings | 52c | 484.76$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.69 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Loewen Frankfurt | 51c | 443.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.43 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Schwenninger Wild Wings | 49c | 276.13$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.83 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Schwenninger Wild Wings | 46c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Loewen Frankfurt | 50c | 50.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Loewen Frankfurt | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Schwenninger Wild Wings | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Loewen Frankfurt | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.