Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Essence vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba3f3387fdff646f368b32091681b67833c393a969307e265160bd5681d78fbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WinteR SquadronSof Team Essence, WinteR SquadronS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed WinteR SquadronS | 71c | 646.75$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.34 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Team Essence | 36c | 314.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed WinteR SquadronS | 56c | 308.68$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked WinteR SquadronS | 56c | 296.46$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed WinteR SquadronS | 58c | 224.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…c953backed Team Essence | 42c | 212.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e19…3a62backed Team Essence | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Team Essence | 44c | 163.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Essence | 19c | 132.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…c31cbacked Team Essence | 65c | 124.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…2412backed Team Essence | 38c | 121.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed Team Essence | 13c | 110.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked WinteR SquadronS | 60c | 97.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Team Essence | 27c | 95.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Team Essence | 23c | 95.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…afc5backed Team Essence | 22c | 85.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…234fbacked WinteR SquadronS | 60c | 78.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed WinteR SquadronS | 74c | 71.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Team Essence | 22c | 69.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Team Essence | 47c | 60.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4898…a723backed Team Essence | 31c | 39.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed WinteR SquadronS | 53c | 37.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…1193backed WinteR SquadronS | 56c | 34.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Team Essence | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…7bd9backed WinteR SquadronS | 64c | 28.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…ab82backed Team Essence | 44c | 26.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b3…cbe0backed WinteR SquadronS | 58c | 25.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed WinteR SquadronS | 58c | 24.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041d…22f8backed WinteR SquadronS | 69c | 21.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed WinteR SquadronS | 64c | 20.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fd…b019backed WinteR SquadronS | 66c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.