Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba834e7526f92962c569e0aba826fb4e71bd5dae70d1cc20bec2a0f256b13f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 674.07$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 51c | 272$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 44c | 264.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 233.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 16c | 208.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 181.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 17c | 176.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 147.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 142.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 105.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed No | 61c | 98.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 28c | 94.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed Yes | 75c | 93.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 72c | 91.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 70c | 91.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 35c | 87.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 73.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 68c | 70.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 64.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 65c | 60.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 36c | 60.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 52.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 70c | 40.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…d2efbacked Yes | 67c | 40.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 39.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 36c | 37.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 48c | 37.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc927…efd8backed Yes | 37c | 35.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 34.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 36c | 33.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 40c | 25.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 64c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ea…6b1abacked Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 77c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 16.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 70c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.