NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba99c2b6f2db6124ba273657986f24a42c5c8b070a89f6ac61dc39bb74b18a68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights | 52c | 1,300$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.99 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Canucks | 47c | 1,220$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.71 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Canucks | 48c | 945.81$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.99 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Golden Knights | 53c | 603.77$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.77 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Canucks | 49c | 381.37$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.81 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Golden Knights | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Canucks | 45c | 318.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Golden Knights | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Golden Knights | 52c | 194.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Golden Knights | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Canucks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Canucks | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Golden Knights | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Canucks | 51c | 93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Canucks | 30c | 89.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Golden Knights | 52c | 76.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Canucks | 51c | 66.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Golden Knights | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Golden Knights | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Canucks | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Golden Knights | 59c | 45.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…5f80backed Golden Knights | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Canucks | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Golden Knights | 54c | 26.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Canucks | 46c | 22.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Canucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Canucks vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Canucks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.