Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaa07d29ae18dc84acb0c3caf766dfe0e052fb76663cc4b167caf62dd99241ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 12c | 575.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 24c | 533.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 67c | 340$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 24c | 318.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 24c | 245.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 18c | 207.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76e2…dfebbacked No | 80c | 145.39$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…667dbacked No | 63c | 124.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…0689backed Yes | 42c | 109.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…0262backed Yes | 34c | 103$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 48c | 79.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…4635backed No | 66c | 73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 17c | 68.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 67c | 64.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…b9b6backed Yes | 49c | 55.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e30dbacked Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…4e0bbacked No | 70c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…5e5ebacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…7996backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3775…b928backed No | 79c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.