Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb05d94d1618ee88d4ce35904199a7ffaf605af211bd103dce957a3e8eb0eb7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 56c | 242.71$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 69c | 119.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 103.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 59c | 98.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 76c | 81.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes | 70c | 77.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 38c | 74.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 59c | 74.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 48c | 69.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…5385backed Yes | 69c | 61.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 57.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 54c | 56.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 54.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 22c | 51.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 49.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 32c | 43.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 57c | 38.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…73a6backed Yes | 46c | 35.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…f890backed No | 51c | 34.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 51c | 34.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 31.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 52c | 28.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 27.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 27.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 58c | 24.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…3e6bbacked No | 54c | 22.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 51c | 20.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…8411backed Yes | 69c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…1f66backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.