South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb26dcacc11661005c9618ced1df110fdbdc4d08ff0f87f1b26f412df7b60a9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 69c | 4,342$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.45 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 4,145$3,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.06 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 33c | 3,975$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.52 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 17c | 1,613$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed Over | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 44c | 282$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.08 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Under | 78c | 256.07$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…4939backed Over | 44c | 196.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 56c | 148.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 70c | 143.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 48c | 123.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 48c | 116.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 112.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…f8c9backed Under | 25c | 110$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 32c | 95.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 21c | 93.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 19cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 42c | 89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Under | 69c | 69.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 50c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 56c | 59.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd441…87febacked Over | 68c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 32c | 57.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 33c | 57.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Over | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +438.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 51c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 59c | 47.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…b944backed Over | 27c | 37.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…632fbacked Under | 37c | 36.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Under | 69c | 30.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Under | 73c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 73c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 60c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 80c | 12.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.