College Football · resolved market
Spread: Virginia (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb2cb3b1546b2b5dac6ab9587a39979ad05154a45cb5c59fe31cbe6196916124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginiaof Virginia, Virginia Tech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Virginia | 49c | 7,617$3,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,884.54 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Virginia Tech | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia | 48c | 2,119$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Virginia Tech | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Virginia Tech | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.82 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Virginia | 48c | 1,257$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.1 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Virginia Tech | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Virginia Tech | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Virginia | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Virginia | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Virginia Tech | 51c | 107$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Virginia Tech | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Virginia Tech | 51c | 51.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…9e3bbacked Virginia | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Virginia (-10.5)Virginia won
- Spread: Virginia (-7.5)Virginia won
- Spread: Virginia (-9.5)Virginia won
- Virginia Tech vs. VirginiaVirginia won
- Virginia Tech vs. Virginia: O/U 52.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.