NHL · resolved market
SHL: Vaexjoe vs. Brynaes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbd75d16f82eb7680fb2ab06dadaf70b13f00e83e6eb3f35118721190829a5d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vaexjoeof Vaexjoe, Brynaes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Vaexjoe | 51c | 525.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.95 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Vaexjoe | 53c | 377.81$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.81 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Brynaes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Vaexjoe | 52c | 230.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…9d5fbacked Brynaes | 47c | 219$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…4c8abacked Vaexjoe | 53c | 217.11$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…99ccbacked Brynaes | 47c | 213$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…a6b3backed Vaexjoe | 53c | 212.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Brynaes | 48c | 211.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2081…e8d7backed Brynaes | 47c | 211$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…2592backed Vaexjoe | 53c | 210.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…d399backed Vaexjoe | 53c | 205.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…e5bbbacked Vaexjoe | 53c | 202.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…c540backed Brynaes | 47c | 202$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e3…ebabbacked Vaexjoe | 53c | 201.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…4d38backed Brynaes | 47c | 201$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee4…5eaebacked Brynaes | 47c | 194$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Brynaes | 48c | 192.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…f2b9backed Brynaes | 47c | 192$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…33debacked Brynaes | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f4…2429backed Vaexjoe | 53c | 188.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…44e1backed Brynaes | 47c | 187$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e6…d940backed Vaexjoe | 53c | 184.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4803…cfa5backed Vaexjoe | 53c | 184.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc7…0c7cbacked Vaexjoe | 53c | 183.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…ae81backed Brynaes | 47c | 182$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Brynaes | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Brynaes | 48c | 157.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Brynaes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…229abacked Vaexjoe | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Vaexjoe | 52c | 74.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Vaexjoe | 70c | 59.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Brynaes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Brynaes | 47c | 38.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Brynaes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Brynaes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.