Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Perú Rejects (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc0a23f6b774f587034ca7b0f4490dbadaa1822fca47dd26d12e4b517053fe59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Perú Rejectsof Looking for Org, Perú Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ae…f1c4backed Looking for Org | 0c | 2,264$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Looking for Org | 22c | 1,646$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.55 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Looking for Org | 27c | 1,007$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.17 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Perú Rejects | 58c | 973.72$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.62 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Perú Rejects | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Looking for Org | 42c | 393.08$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Looking for Org | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300e…dfb3backed Looking for Org | 42c | 178.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Perú Rejects | 60c | 168.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Looking for Org | 47c | 138.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Looking for Org | 42c | 122.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Looking for Org | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Perú Rejects | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Looking for Org | 46c | 94.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…cf6cbacked Looking for Org | 47c | 71.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Looking for Org | 42c | 71.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Looking for Org | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Perú Rejects | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Looking for Org | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Perú Rejects | 56c | 43.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Looking for Org | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Perú Rejects | 59c | 41.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Perú Rejects | 58c | 34.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Perú Rejects | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Perú Rejects | 56c | 32.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Perú Rejects | 61c | 21.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Perú Rejects | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Perú Rejects | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…d18bbacked Perú Rejects | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Perú Rejects | 63c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Perú Rejects (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Perú Rejects - Game 1 WinnerPerú Rejects won
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Perú Rejects - Game 2 WinnerPerú Rejects won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.