Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Wild (-1.5) vs Serna (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc4e3631cf0d74eec59700e4183dfd54073bd10c435d73ca99e6abc5fe41da7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Wild, Serna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a09…e2b8backed Serna | 48c | 2,576$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.63 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6c…d56cbacked Wild | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 244 | 51.6%126 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Serna | 49c | 799.98$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.99 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Wild | 54c | 619.8$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.31 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Wild | 54c | 348.19$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 259 | 48.6%126 W · 133 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Wild | 52c | 227.69$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 248 | 56.9%141 W · 107 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Wild | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Wild | 52c | 196.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Wild | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Serna | 46c | 158.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Serna | 46c | 152.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Serna | 54c | 114.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c3…fd98backed Wild | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Wild | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…48f7backed Wild | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Wild | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Wild | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Wild | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Wild | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Wild | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Serna | 47c | 93.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Wild | 52c | 84.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Wild | 52c | 78.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Wild | 52c | 78.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Wild | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Wild | 47c | 60.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Serna | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…32e0backed Wild | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Wild | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Serna | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Wild (-1.5) vs Serna (+1.5)this page
- Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La SernaThiago Seyboth Wild won
- Set 1 Winner: Wild vs SernaWild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.