TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Houston Cougars (-17.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Cougarsof Houston Cougars, Arizona State Sun Devils
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,848 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Houston Cougars52c2,483$1,291 inWon+$1,191.3712,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils48c2,282$1,093 inLost-$1,093.34,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Houston Cougars49c503.78$247 inWon+$256.9361652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Arizona State Sun Devils51c500$255 inLost-$25582048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Arizona State Sun Devils48c208.33$100 inLost-$10020046.5%93 W · 107 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Arizona State Sun Devils48c100$48 inLost-$4814654.1%79 W · 67 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Arizona State Sun Devils50c91$46 inLost-$45.57346.6%34 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc427…ee41backed Arizona State Sun Devils50c79$40 inLost-$39.54348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Houston Cougars55c65.45$36 inWon+$29.4532652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Houston Cougars54c60$32 inWon+$27.65364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Houston Cougars54c55$30 inWon+$25.37245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Houston Cougars52c50$26 inWon+$241,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aae…e845backed Arizona State Sun Devils46c30$14 inLost-$13.84057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07eb…4b4cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils46c30$14 inLost-$13.82552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f0…afe6backed Houston Cougars50c30$15 inWon+$151675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5931…08cbbacked Houston Cougars50c26$13 inWon+$132568%17 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd26c…fc57backed Houston Cougars50c25$13 inWon+$12.52965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Houston Cougars50c22$11 inWon+$113043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Houston Cougars53c21.28$11 inWon+$105,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.