Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf31e848a3c4abe6d1bae033a1dabfa1fc20f0cca97b98eb4010cf58a8d41d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 755.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 18c | 680.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 16c | 214.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 190.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 166.43$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 53c | 150.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cd…00c4backed Yes | 28c | 150.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 43c | 115.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 105.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 19c | 84.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 82.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 21c | 77.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 72.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 71.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 70.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 67c | 54.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 25c | 50.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 47.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 40.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 40.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 38c | 38.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 35.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 78c | 27.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…dfc0backed No | 80c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.