Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 64°F or higher on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd160cef12407a649854122f0594ba998ef31a524039524f1da0b2d5238584a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,846 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,645$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…86abbacked No | 0c | 5,106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 2c | 1,613$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 5c | 1,552$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60b…31babacked No | 1c | 1,452$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 4c | 1,061$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 7c | 1,045$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 464.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 3c | 395.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 5c | 368.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 17c | 347.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 4c | 239.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked No | 6c | 228.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 199.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed No | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked No | 14c | 173.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 15c | 164.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 126.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 103.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…3a69backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 49c | 64.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…5a8bbacked Yes | 80c | 58.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 40c | 49.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 64°F or higher on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 49°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.