Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: NAVI vs. BB
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd1ef821ae703f8a76462624a3ac0c9d664298e0eab4e2ccec0af0411b75b774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BBof NAVI, BB
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea0f…23b1backed NAVI | 33c | 3,004$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked BB | 67c | 2,500$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed BB | 67c | 2,500$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed BB | 66c | 629.99$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed BB | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…03edbacked NAVI | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed NAVI | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed NAVI | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed BB | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed NAVI | 11c | 118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed BB | 65c | 84.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…c0dabacked NAVI | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…7afebacked NAVI | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked BB | 67c | 48.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…427ebacked NAVI | 34c | 48.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed BB | 66c | 47.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdac…a6fdbacked NAVI | 32c | 38.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked BB | 64c | 25.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.