CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd485ad7d9513382d2733e28b1ff53068866134447e539ac1475b0dd571e3353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Last Bulletof Change The Game, Last Bullet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda1a…3407backed Change The Game | 57c | 8,710$4,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,969.27 | 289 | 60.6%175 W · 114 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Last Bullet | 48c | 2,471$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.64 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Last Bullet | 43c | 1,599$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.98 | 8,058 | 50.3%4,055 W · 4,003 L | +171.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Change The Game | 56c | 870$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.35 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Last Bullet | 41c | 706.1$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.6 | 5,651 | 47.2%2,668 W · 2,983 L | +46.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Last Bullet | 52c | 692.94$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.76 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Last Bullet | 42c | 546.56$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.02 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Last Bullet | 41c | 489.87$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.42 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…3f07backed Change The Game | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Last Bullet | 55c | 351.18$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.14 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Last Bullet | 39c | 280$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.65 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5ea0backed Last Bullet | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Last Bullet | 50c | 223.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 5,113 | 37.1%1,899 W · 3,214 L | -268.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Last Bullet | 42c | 177.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 4,132 | 50.9%2,104 W · 2,028 L | +72.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…0a26backed Last Bullet | 40c | 139.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…1972backed Change The Game | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Last Bullet | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Last Bullet | 55c | 92.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…8ee3backed Last Bullet | 52c | 81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Last Bullet | 55c | 74.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Last Bullet | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Last Bullet | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 611 | 42.7%261 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…e508backed Last Bullet | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Last Bullet | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,674 | 51.9%1,388 W · 1,286 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group BChange The Game won
- Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet - Map 1 WinnerChange The Game won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.