CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d6ac3a9425b67f90ba93564372bcb2f590cdac53863109535f305fcbc30548b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Change The Gameof Change The Game, Last Bullet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Change The Game | 56c | 2,294$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.5 | 245 | 38.4%94 W · 151 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Last Bullet | 49c | 992.75$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.99 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…5c4cbacked Last Bullet | 42c | 588.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.88 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Last Bullet | 45c | 413.24$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.96 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Last Bullet | 42c | 307.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked Change The Game | 49c | 306.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.38 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Change The Game | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.08 | 610 | 34.3%209 W · 401 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Last Bullet | 58c | 291.53$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.09 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Last Bullet | 45c | 277.84$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Change The Game | 56c | 164.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 212 | 47.6%101 W · 111 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Change The Game | 65c | 153.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 226 | 54.9%124 W · 102 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Last Bullet | 47c | 146.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Last Bullet | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…98f1backed Change The Game | 54c | 113.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Change The Game | 64c | 105.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Last Bullet | 55c | 95.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Last Bullet | 41c | 80.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Change The Game | 44c | 62.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c5bbacked Last Bullet | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Last Bullet | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Change The Game | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…b6b9backed Last Bullet | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Change The Game | 34c | 43.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Last Bullet | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9f06backed Change The Game | 57c | 31.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…f8eabacked Last Bullet | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group Bthis page
- Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet - Map 1 WinnerChange The Game won
- Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet - Map 2 WinnerLast Bullet won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.