Tennis · resolved market
ITF Huamantla: Yui Watanabe vs Misa Malkin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd4c7d845cd22a589178d00178860b88cc07808c5e3d0035d59dafc8afb90eb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yui Watanabeof Yui Watanabe, Misa Malkin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Misa Malkin | 45c | 7,841$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550.07 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yui Watanabe | 53c | 7,036$3,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,273.15 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yui Watanabe | 47c | 1,342$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.26 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Misa Malkin | 5c | 977.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Misa Malkin | 80c | 450$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yui Watanabe | 46c | 288.18$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.26 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yui Watanabe | 72c | 226.95$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Misa Malkin | 19c | 97.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Yui Watanabe | 20c | 75.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 392 | 54.1%212 W · 180 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Misa Malkin | 80c | 65.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Misa Malkin | 80c | 62.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Yui Watanabe | 19c | 62.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Misa Malkin | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -17.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yui Watanabe | 21c | 47.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yui Watanabe | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 414 | 40.3%167 W · 247 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Misa Malkin | 67c | 44.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Misa Malkin | 52c | 32.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed Yui Watanabe | 56c | 32.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Misa Malkin | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Misa Malkin | 78c | 18.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.