Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Cristian vs Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd75dfea7060093bb7523387392f9f89364ed1e05b4e3aa4bd359756adb6f63d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Cristian, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Muchova | 76c | 126.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cristian | 25c | 114.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Muchova | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Cristian | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x353a…06c5backed Muchova | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Muchova | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…654fbacked Muchova | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Muchova | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…b444backed Muchova | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…9077backed Muchova | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…9683backed Muchova | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf1…8594backed Muchova | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…11fabacked Muchova | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e68ebacked Muchova | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…db85backed Muchova | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944b…34e8backed Muchova | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…def5backed Muchova | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…ab1cbacked Muchova | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…a30cbacked Muchova | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Cristian vs Muchovathis page
- Cristian vs. Muchova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Qatar Total Open: Jaqueline Cristian vs Karolina MuchovaMuchova won
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Cristian (+1.5)Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.