Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Total Open: Jaqueline Cristian vs Karolina Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x276f5707daddec85f99398d2ffd3aa02417374c40981d7ebce168571cb7621b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Cristian, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Cristian | 6c | 19,860$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.98 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Cristian | 24c | 11,123$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.55 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Muchova | 79c | 7,969$6,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.55 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…2b51backed Cristian | 9c | 7,065$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…218abacked Cristian | 8c | 4,082$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 541 | 38.1%206 W · 335 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cristian | 9c | 3,691$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.86 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Muchova | 75c | 2,394$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.4 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cristian | 4c | 1,383$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Muchova | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cristian | 12c | 948.87$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Cristian | 13c | 765.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Cristian | 12c | 688.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 123 | 13.8%17 W · 106 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Muchova | 70c | 571.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.88 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1a…1211backed Cristian | 5c | 566.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Cristian | 18c | 555.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Muchova | 80c | 515.04$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Muchova | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 347 | 45.2%157 W · 190 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Cristian | 21c | 426.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…adbebacked Cristian | 4c | 340.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cristian | 11c | 253.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cristian | 17c | 157.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Cristian | 16c | 124.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Cristian | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 275 | 43.3%119 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cristian | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Muchova | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qatar Total Open: Jaqueline Cristian vs Karolina Muchovathis page
- Cristian vs. Muchova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Cristian vs MuchovaMuchova won
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Cristian (+1.5)Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.