Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd9f9b65b3a98fa9c3f0d4da563fc1b519fa2093612fe8fc79f0165779d1e7ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuestof Shopify Rebellion Black, FlyQuest
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 18c | 487.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 418 | 35.6%149 W · 269 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…5808backed FlyQuest | 57c | 358.69$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…86a4backed FlyQuest | 56c | 349.95$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 28c | 271.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FlyQuest | 72c | 244.88$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 53c | 210.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 43c | 81.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 63.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed FlyQuest | 58c | 52.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked FlyQuest | 72c | 38.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 73c | 30.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…7b60backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked FlyQuest | 74c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group StageFlyQuest won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs FlyQuest - Map 2 WinnerFlyQuest won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.