Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs OG - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdd071fcbada4ee0b54f016c4a4777bc57a23da9fc7871246539fb1be8da3026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiN Gamingof paiN Gaming, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed paiN Gaming | 71c | 7,298$5,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.91 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed paiN Gaming | 72c | 2,480$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.49 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed OG | 27c | 2,199$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.6 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed OG | 30c | 2,165$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.6 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed OG | 3c | 1,218$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…9794backed OG | 50c | 1,211$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed OG | 27c | 1,007$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.13 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked OG | 31c | 1,000$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked OG | 25c | 790$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed paiN Gaming | 16c | 656.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.68 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked OG | 26c | 447$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed paiN Gaming | 50c | 441.84$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.92 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed OG | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked OG | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed OG | 25c | 330$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…a0a4backed OG | 25c | 330$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…aa06backed paiN Gaming | 69c | 280$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked paiN Gaming | 70c | 266.23$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5c…a4fcbacked paiN Gaming | 32c | 180.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 28cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed OG | 45c | 170$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…6078backed OG | 41c | 163.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…2359backed OG | 25c | 162$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked OG | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked OG | 36c | 111.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed OG | 73c | 102.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…03cbbacked paiN Gaming | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…1c0abacked OG | 19c | 68.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked paiN Gaming | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked OG | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d69…1dc4backed OG | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed paiN Gaming | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe63d…0545backed paiN Gaming | 42c | 25.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed paiN Gaming | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.