NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdfd631ac94406434d14fee4b049c11feb66d0c6d906921f2778c5e85349ab0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Stars, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 35c | 1,280$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.6 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Stars | 34c | 1,201$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.83 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Senators | 65c | 1,144$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.49 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Senators | 65c | 430.15$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Stars | 36c | 360$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Stars | 33c | 300$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.8 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Senators | 66c | 175$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Senators | 67c | 170$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Senators | 66c | 160$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…9ad0backed Senators | 67c | 135$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Senators | 66c | 121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Senators | 66c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Senators | 66c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Senators | 66c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Senators | 66c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Senators | 66c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Senators | 66c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Senators | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Senators | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Senators | 68c | 70.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Senators | 66c | 59.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Senators | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Stars | 43c | 30.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Senators | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. StarsStars won
- Senators vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Senators vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.