Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe174c496f35702edf8f7abffc3dea078bf354de1c71c2bbda62a7c906fcbf81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- InterActive Philippinesof Cloud Rising, InterActive Philippines
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,963 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf27f…866bbacked Cloud Rising | 41c | 22,121$9,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,069.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…5e2cbacked InterActive Philippines | 59c | 22,121$13,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,068.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cloud Rising | 40c | 735.27$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.12 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Cloud Rising | 43c | 308.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…0caebacked InterActive Philippines | 60c | 303.33$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…2149backed InterActive Philippines | 59c | 182.48$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Cloud Rising | 54c | 142.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…17fbbacked InterActive Philippines | 60c | 113.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…f9c9backed InterActive Philippines | 60c | 112.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed InterActive Philippines | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…37d7backed Cloud Rising | 54c | 102.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Cloud Rising | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked InterActive Philippines | 48c | 98.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked InterActive Philippines | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed InterActive Philippines | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed InterActive Philippines | 61c | 60.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Cloud Rising | 40c | 51.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed InterActive Philippines | 46c | 46.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed InterActive Philippines | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.