Cricket · resolved market
Big Bash League: Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades (Game 1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe21842e3811645a4909c81d48b09b79f98412fab446fe38252cf32fc02907e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adelaide Strikersof Adelaide Strikers, Melbourne Renegades
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf819…d410backed Melbourne Renegades | 43c | 801.86$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Melbourne Renegades | 40c | 697.14$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.84 | 763 | 51.6%394 W · 369 L | +29.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Melbourne Renegades | 27c | 695.69$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Adelaide Strikers | 74c | 626.92$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 330 | 42.4%140 W · 190 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Adelaide Strikers | 70c | 515.46$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Melbourne Renegades | 17c | 423$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…59efbacked Melbourne Renegades | 18c | 330.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 132 | 41.7%55 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…c9b3backed Melbourne Renegades | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 222 | 41.9%93 W · 129 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…c751backed Adelaide Strikers | 77c | 242.49$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Adelaide Strikers | 79c | 238.02$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…7d7dbacked Melbourne Renegades | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 328 | 46.3%152 W · 176 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…a127backed Adelaide Strikers | 60c | 166.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Adelaide Strikers | 60c | 153$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35c…221fbacked Melbourne Renegades | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…fdb5backed Adelaide Strikers | 59c | 114.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Adelaide Strikers | 61c | 104.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Melbourne Renegades | 40c | 104$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8678…b755backed Melbourne Renegades | 40c | 102.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Adelaide Strikers | 59c | 101.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…c48dbacked Melbourne Renegades | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 299 | 32.4%97 W · 202 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…1209backed Melbourne Renegades | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…268dbacked Adelaide Strikers | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…1cc3backed Melbourne Renegades | 25c | 81.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Adelaide Strikers | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…daf8backed Adelaide Strikers | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Melbourne Renegades | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 21.6%30 W · 109 L | -14.6wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -41%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…c4a7backed Adelaide Strikers | 60c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.