World Politics · resolved market
Will National Rally win 275-299 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe22ba909386bef513f83fad301291ca53a870de1d0481973c95259a9bb5dce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 1,873$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.27 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 5c | 800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 25c | 523.26$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…8501backed Yes | 15c | 484.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 399.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5856…89d1backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…2804backed Yes | 11c | 239.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc6…52c6backed Yes | 15c | 209.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 15c | 151.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 10c | 149.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 16c | 102.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 23c | 100.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will National Rally win 275-299 seats?this page
- Will National Rally win 175-199 seats?No won
- Will National Rally win 200-224 seats?No won
- Will National Rally win 225-249 seats?No won
- Will National Rally win 250-274 seats?No won
- Will National Rally win 300-324 seats?No won
- Will National Rally win 325+ seats?No won
- Will National Rally win less than 175 seats?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.