Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs RE.Arise (BO1) - Paragon Turbina Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeb00112c338e133187c49c3281922693b3edd76fa7d5ddbb21c3ec2dd0038b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zero Tenacityof Zero Tenacity, RE.Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Zero Tenacity | 74c | 1,705$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.71 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Zero Tenacity | 45c | 1,609$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.32 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked RE.Arise | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed RE.Arise | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 62c | 247.6$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked RE.Arise | 73c | 205.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 208 | 59.6%124 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Zero Tenacity | 53c | 187.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed RE.Arise | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…8036backed Zero Tenacity | 25c | 52.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Zero Tenacity | 63c | 47.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked RE.Arise | 54c | 45.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed RE.Arise | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked RE.Arise | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…dee6backed RE.Arise | 68c | 22.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb42e…2f40backed RE.Arise | 52c | 21.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked RE.Arise | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed RE.Arise | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.