Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf233274150717c7a8ff8ae3ffb44f627458a397711b6b8e0609e65ffaedc5ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,865$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.71 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 954.6$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.05 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 790$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 24c | 375.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 319.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 318.75$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 270.42$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 26c | 234.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 75c | 198$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…2dbcbacked Yes | 27c | 100.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…840bbacked No | 75c | 92.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 89.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Yes | 27c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 24c | 52.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…b526backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1723…9d18backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6206…94d5backed Yes | 25c | 48.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…b6ecbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed No | 76c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Auckland FC win on 2026-02-20?Yes won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.