Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cac9611c13a4ee2831558fe03fd95a0c28077dd87ba7b26bdbf6c4624f02581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5016…58e4backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 1,945$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.6 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 1,550$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.73 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 1,146$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.77 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…f3f6backed Yes | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 543.71$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 527.12$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.78 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 27c | 453$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked No | 77c | 325.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a583backed No | 78c | 168$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +127%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Yes | 27c | 139.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 24c | 106.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…2dbcbacked Yes | 26c | 100.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 75c | 65.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 38.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-20?this page
- Will Auckland FC win on 2026-02-20?Yes won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.