Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Samford Bulldogs vs. Central Arkansas Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf51c76e8837d7cdd399e3d0b7a7a2be3d1dd23f27429a19f09fbfe4655897cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Samford Bulldogsof Samford Bulldogs, Central Arkansas Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Samford Bulldogs | 78c | 1,815$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.46 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 22c | 1,470$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.89 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…5b17backed Central Arkansas Bears | 25c | 782$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed Samford Bulldogs | 77c | 553.12$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Central Arkansas Bears | 21c | 519.57$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Central Arkansas Bears | 25c | 479$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 132 | 27.3%36 W · 96 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Samford Bulldogs | 75c | 324$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f8…583dbacked Samford Bulldogs | 75c | 283$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b3…39d1backed Samford Bulldogs | 75c | 253$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…d5ecbacked Samford Bulldogs | 75c | 246$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Central Arkansas Bears | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Samford Bulldogs | 75c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Samford Bulldogs vs. Central Arkansas Bearsthis page
- Samford Bulldogs vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 149.5Over won
- Spread: Samford Bulldogs (-7.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.