Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf870d329924638db4f0d6ed2ce80e2d6b3432b51f7da7c801b45febe186b405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 2,979$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,209$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…538ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,817$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 13c | 1,814$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 11c | 1,742$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.57 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 9c | 1,544$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.14 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 10c | 1,390$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,309$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,257$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,019$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 181 | 26%47 W · 134 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 962.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 16c | 850.57$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…14f2backed Yes | 12c | 729.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…cea6backed Yes | 16c | 529$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 438.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d2…eeb8backed Yes | 12c | 428.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…7e81backed Yes | 9c | 355.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 4c | 339.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 78c | 269.87$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fba…7c86backed Yes | 8c | 260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 6c | 254.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…588dbacked Yes | 9c | 249.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed No | 78c | 228.9$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 14c | 96.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…aa39backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…0f0fbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae39…0305backed Yes | 16c | 70.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 65c | 19.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.