Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0026182dbf709a36f4765ff56e7094fb593a92e0bab7138627957f33e90f065
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,532 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a6…aee8backed No | 58c | 8,416$4,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,881.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…63a4backed Yes | 42c | 6,170$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,578.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…1847backed Yes | 42c | 4,937$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…04f6backed No | 58c | 2,514$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 288 | 24.7%71 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 472.35$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.57 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…5dcebacked Yes | 41c | 402.95$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 58c | 235$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Yes | 44c | 182.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…c9febacked No | 58c | 176$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 56c | 158$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked No | 59c | 140.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed No | 59c | 76.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 41c | 43.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e91…8d7ebacked Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 41c | 25.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 59c | 19.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.