La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-02-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0208baa3d55f1f245d182c36384b923dfda7301ec0fc4af20b218ee838e2b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 20c | 3,126$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.83 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 14c | 1,454$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.52 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 74c | 808.82$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.17 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fe…70eebacked No | 28c | 696.43$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 38c | 665.05$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.96 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 63c | 392.81$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.77 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 317.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.03 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked No | 18c | 171$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -65%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…20bbbacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 19c | 114.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 351 | 45.6%160 W · 191 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 63c | 104.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 18c | 73.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a583backed Yes | 69c | 64.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 42c | 51.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 585 | 48%281 W · 304 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 56c | 40.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -15.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…adb9backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 37c | 29.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed No | 64c | 28.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-02-20?this page
- Will AD Ceuta FC vs. Granada CF end in a draw?No won
- Will Granada CF win on 2026-02-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.