Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men: Pavel Lagutin vs Goncalo Marques
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc026fce832bb37a9e99c850af419ee17ec2aa425f3e6b508c17d8ed39706878c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pavel Lagutinof Pavel Lagutin, Goncalo Marques
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Pavel Lagutin | 54c | 2,388$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.89 | 251 | 44.6%112 W · 139 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Pavel Lagutin | 73c | 1,023$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.22 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Pavel Lagutin | 64c | 1,006$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.98 | 465 | 51.2%238 W · 227 L | -23.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Goncalo Marques | 45c | 710$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.9 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Goncalo Marques | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Goncalo Marques | 26c | 327.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Goncalo Marques | 29c | 261.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Pavel Lagutin | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 360 | 53.1%191 W · 169 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Goncalo Marques | 43c | 149.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Goncalo Marques | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Goncalo Marques | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Goncalo Marques | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Goncalo Marques | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Goncalo Marques | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Goncalo Marques | 45c | 108.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Goncalo Marques | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Goncalo Marques | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…e58cbacked Pavel Lagutin | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Goncalo Marques | 34c | 97.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Goncalo Marques | 50c | 91.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Goncalo Marques | 46c | 87.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 239 | 54.8%131 W · 108 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Pavel Lagutin | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Goncalo Marques | 50c | 74.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Goncalo Marques | 44c | 64.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Goncalo Marques | 40c | 54.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Goncalo Marques | 44c | 41.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Goncalo Marques | 50c | 39.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Goncalo Marques | 50c | 39.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Goncalo Marques | 38c | 33.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Goncalo Marques | 43c | 31.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Pavel Lagutin | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…af5bbacked Pavel Lagutin | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.