Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan vs. Nebraska
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc05a4608d8f67583586f6983092119e8ee673ff63d8dc738b250bc2c6a26df38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michiganof Michigan, Nebraska
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Nebraska | 47c | 121.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Michigan | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Nebraska | 47c | 75.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3442…bee5backed Michigan | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186e…cabbbacked Nebraska | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Michigan | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Nebraska | 49c | 68.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…793fbacked Michigan | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…d072backed Michigan | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Nebraska | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Michigan | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde12…a72abacked Michigan | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ef…0379backed Michigan | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed Michigan | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…18c7backed Nebraska | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.