Tennis · resolved market
Metepec: Alexis Galarneau vs Nick Hardt
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc05d297e170a2db03aa208c29c035a8934ad33b2358a94de9753850d2310f736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Galarneauof Galarneau, Hardt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Hardt | 26c | 738.85$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Hardt | 14c | 395.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa8…1bfabacked Galarneau | 73c | 360$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hardt | 25c | 354.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Hardt | 27c | 304.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Galarneau | 72c | 222.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Galarneau | 72c | 200.74$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Hardt | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Galarneau | 79c | 169$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Galarneau | 75c | 161.82$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Hardt | 17c | 146.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Galarneau | 75c | 114.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hardt | 10c | 101.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Galarneau | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Hardt | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Galarneau | 72c | 77.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 370 | 71.9%266 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Galarneau | 75c | 57.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Galarneau | 74c | 46.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Galarneau | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 210 | 72.4%152 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Hardt | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Galarneau | 75c | 33.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed Galarneau | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 144 | 75%108 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Galarneau | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…d240backed Galarneau | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Galarneau | 74c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…d2b5backed Galarneau | 74c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 416 | 68%283 W · 133 L | +23.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…ad29backed Galarneau | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…3189backed Galarneau | 76c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Metepec: Alexis Galarneau vs Nick Hardtthis page
- Galarneau vs. Hardt: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.