Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump praise Vladimir Putin on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0fc9c165d2c04ab61edc3e7955d71e6925e559306028033ae4d6f8258fc3758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 0c | 69,160$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +411%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 3c | 2,399$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…420fbacked No | 0c | 2,395$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 17c | 877.67$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 13c | 814.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked No | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 16c | 530$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed No | 9c | 406$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 17c | 332.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 17c | 243.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…aa22backed No | 18c | 186.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 16c | 62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd2…ec0dbacked Yes | 80c | 46.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.