Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc134bbfeb2832d24bc63815428c7dcd3c72e9d0fc089bdc84f849c5511c3c5d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,169 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 28c | 1,099$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.34 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…4503backed No | 21c | 611.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 13c | 606.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed No | 26c | 301.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fe48backed No | 40c | 252.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755c…e9aebacked Yes | 59c | 134.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 229 | 64.2%147 W · 82 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1347backed Yes | 77c | 111.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Yes | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 51 | 84.3%43 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…6b17backed No | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 42c | 26.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d47…e855backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…6ef9backed Yes | 62c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 80c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 24?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on March 24?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.