South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-09-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc20fc6aa86e665263437aeaed39293534d7d31f42506799f1fc7e4527fe6fad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 658$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdc…3a4ebacked No | 55c | 599.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 55c | 425.88$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.78 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 54c | 400.93$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.19 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 46c | 238.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…28f4backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 45c | 122.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…3d62backed Yes | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Yes | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…15d4backed No | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.