Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21d6d15e418d042b728e12c8a524cb742c511bc7708b8606e9266453e10469b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 15c | 730.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 7c | 378.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 60c | 252$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 219.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 190.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 8c | 169.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 158.49$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 80c | 156.04$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 154.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 129.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 94.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 78.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 67.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 66.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 74c | 60.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 49c | 56.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 46.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 41c | 40.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 77c | 33.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 46c | 33.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 35c | 30.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 41c | 26.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 26.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 63c | 26.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 67c | 25.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 23.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 22.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 50c | 21.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 18.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.