Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2cbd9042cfdacba2b7e856d7a0b7e5a7e6f250f57688a4442ae10743215ff6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,942$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 1,308$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.05 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 14c | 906.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 15c | 726.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…65fabacked Yes | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 22c | 610.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 78c | 358.17$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 3c | 303.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 7c | 204.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 14c | 195.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 21c | 195.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 170.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6925…d76dbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 79c | 126.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 37c | 117.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 21c | 91.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 23c | 65.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 64.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 63.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked No | 78c | 49.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed No | 78c | 45.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…9ea9backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 78c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-13?this page
- Will San Diego FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?No won
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.