NHL · resolved market
AHL: Texas Stars vs. Iowa Wild
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2eab52bc08290a30531a9bf1fa45795137d243812d28597d8daa20e27711dc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Wildof Texas Stars, Iowa Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Iowa Wild | 34c | 189$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Iowa Wild | 34c | 184$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Texas Stars | 66c | 158.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Iowa Wild | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Iowa Wild | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Iowa Wild | 34c | 117.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Iowa Wild | 35c | 110$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas Stars | 65c | 106.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5920…3ed2backed Texas Stars | 66c | 81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Texas Stars | 66c | 78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Iowa Wild | 34c | 67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Iowa Wild | 34c | 54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Iowa Wild | 34c | 53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Texas Stars | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Texas Stars | 66c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Texas Stars | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Texas Stars | 62c | 40.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Texas Stars | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Texas Stars | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc94…0befbacked Texas Stars | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Texas Stars | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Iowa Wild | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Texas Stars | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Texas Stars | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Texas Stars | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Texas Stars | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Texas Stars | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Texas Stars | 62c | 24.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Texas Stars | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Texas Stars | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Texas Stars | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…bd5cbacked Texas Stars | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -77%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Texas Stars | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Texas Stars | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.