Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-02-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc368310d5d49d03b933bea3083de55abeb79735bcc43a97957d8134f1cef6a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 5,320$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 10c | 3,534$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.98 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 2,913$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.29 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa569…08dfbacked Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,470$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 24c | 1,335$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.19 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…1bb9backed Yes | 33c | 1,206$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 24c | 807.26$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.46 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 12c | 612.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 31c | 290.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.59 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 58c | 281.73$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.35 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 68c | 272.81$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.72 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed No | 68c | 226.47$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 6c | 207.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 24c | 178.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.89 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed No | 13c | 157.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 64c | 155.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed No | 76c | 155$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 66c | 151.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 29c | 137.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 11c | 97.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 34c | 88.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked No | 69c | 73.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 33c | 43.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…ee4dbacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…824fbacked Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…2bc6backed Yes | 56c | 21.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…ef4cbacked No | 69c | 20.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 20.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 17.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-02-22?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-02-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.