Tennis · resolved market
Morelos: Aryan Shah Shah vs Rodrigo Alujas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3df4640303fb06b469287d3c960daf3d6f3da2bb9646423e90268c9e9ed85c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryan Shah Shahof Aryan Shah Shah, Rodrigo Alujas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rodrigo Alujas | 10c | 3,664$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.37 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Aryan Shah Shah | 59c | 2,960$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.29 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Aryan Shah Shah | 28c | 2,857$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.14 | 302 | 25.8%78 W · 224 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 61c | 2,609$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.03 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Aryan Shah Shah | 70c | 1,070$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.46 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 28c | 970$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.37 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rodrigo Alujas | 23c | 758.47$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.17 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rodrigo Alujas | 21c | 727.17$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.71 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Rodrigo Alujas | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 38.2%94 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rodrigo Alujas | 29c | 400.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Rodrigo Alujas | 21c | 240.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Aryan Shah Shah | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rodrigo Alujas | 12c | 94.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aryan Shah Shah | 80c | 76.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Aryan Shah Shah | 63c | 71.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Rodrigo Alujas | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 27c | 60.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Rodrigo Alujas | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Aryan Shah Shah | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 279 | 35.8%100 W · 179 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…44c7backed Rodrigo Alujas | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 51c | 51.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 299 | 52.2%156 W · 143 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Aryan Shah Shah | 80c | 50.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Rodrigo Alujas | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Aryan Shah Shah | 41c | 44.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Rodrigo Alujas | 70c | 41.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Rodrigo Alujas | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…1bffbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aryan Shah Shah | 70c | 30.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Aryan Shah Shah | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.