Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f7eedc527c0fc7f9a9444e24715b5cb774ac597ecf1d7ddca5aeb0591f3836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 50c | 166.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…7dd4backed No | 60c | 165.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 152.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 129.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 45c | 71.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 59.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 36c | 55.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 51c | 47.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked No | 72c | 43.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 50c | 42.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 49c | 41.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed Yes | 36c | 39.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…fb99backed No | 67c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…65dcbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or below on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on February 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.