Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Yandex (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4182c2c54daa7e9db1ba6ddb3b7ea06d7ec70bc44f8ca313272164e0eee7988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof Heroic, Team Yandex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 0c | 6,163$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Heroic | 60c | 764.09$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.45 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Heroic | 71c | 706.22$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.17 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Heroic | 56c | 588.99$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.14 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Yandex | 33c | 336.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.35 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Heroic | 33c | 304.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Yandex | 73c | 269$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Yandex | 49c | 204.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 31c | 185$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…405fbacked Team Yandex | 41c | 182.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Team Yandex | 71c | 100.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…56d6backed Team Yandex | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Heroic | 45c | 46.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…211bbacked Heroic | 67c | 18.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.