Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4689b9b5ee6ba6cc3cfd66f33b2c94faacdf45291e85d30b340262b36c0fbc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 957.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 11c | 315.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 229.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 14c | 170.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 7c | 145.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 8c | 137.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 30c | 99.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 16c | 93.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 79.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 22c | 76.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 22c | 72.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 71.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 68.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked No | 75c | 64.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 24c | 58.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 54.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 76c | 53.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0080…923cbacked Yes | 28c | 52.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 30c | 48.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 72c | 48.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked No | 76c | 25.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 21.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.