Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x514c2fc0e7780e4409bcf18dd46218207f1d2ca0248262c94b624e25ee9304d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 511.98$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 18c | 221.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 195.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 33c | 172.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 68c | 157.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 34c | 136.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 125.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 19c | 114.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 108.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 22c | 105.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked Yes | 22c | 92.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 86.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 21c | 83.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 68c | 72.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 20c | 64.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 60.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 40c | 57.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 35c | 55.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 76c | 51.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 49.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 30c | 46.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 36.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 31.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 78c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 21.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 80c | 20.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.