Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4ac5801d9ca884b18dbda2e9827eae231f51cbcb4d85cceeed87e089b1db0fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,512$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,190.93 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed No | 6c | 680.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed Yes | 19c | 601.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.09 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 63c | 427.69$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…16bdbacked No | 17c | 384.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…4404backed Yes | 53c | 267.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…23f6backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Yes | 56c | 118.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…7313backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…826bbacked Yes | 41c | 88.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…9678backed No | 64c | 38.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on May 22?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 22?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on May 22?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on May 22?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.